People in countries that are highly dependent on fossil fuel production for their energy needs or exports are less likely to view climate change as a threat, according to new research from UK-based charity Lloyd’s Register Foundation. The analysis comes from the latest World Risk Poll, supported by management consultancy Gallup, which polled 125,000 people across 121 countries. 

Respondents were asked whether climate change will be a threat to people in their country in the next 20 years. Globally, 41% of respondents said climate change is a "very serious threat", increasing to 67% when people who see it as a "somewhat serious threat" are included. However, in all countries where energy contributes more than 50% of all exports, less than 50% of the population view climate change as a "very serious threat". This includes Norway, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – with the latter set to host the 2023 UN Climate Change Conference, COP28, in November.

By contrast, in many countries, particularly in Europe and Latin America, the concern is much higher, with as many as 87% of people in the most concerned country, Chile, calling climate change a "very serious threat".

This discrepancy is also reflected within national borders. For instance, in Norway – a major fossil fuel producer – 45% of the population view climate change as a "very serious threat". However, those in western Norway and northern Norway – home to most of the country’s offshore oil and gas fields – are considerably less concerned, with 40% and 31%, respectively, viewing it as a "very serious threat".

“We are reminded of the disastrous impact climate change is having on our world every day," said Tim Slingsby, director of skills and education at Lloyd’s Register Foundation, in a press statement. "Whether it’s the devastation caused by flooding, wildfires or extended heatwaves, there is no denying the imminent threat to our planet. It should therefore be of concern for us all that so many people, particularly those from countries and regions reliant on fossil fuel production, still ­­­do not see it as a threat to their safety. 

“One of the potential reasons for this is risk psychology. For example, warnings about climate change – which can look like an abstract threat to those who do not see the impact in their daily lives – may be downplayed or discounted when compared to threats that seem more pressing or closer to home, such as the fear of lost economic prosperity or employment as a result of decarbonisation.”