The global energy policy landscape in late 2024 and the first quarter (Q1) of 2025 has been dominated by the actions of – and reactions to – the new US President Donald Trump’s revolution of the domestic and international energy and economic landscape. Leading data and analytics company GlobalData‘s Energy Analyst Team reviews the latest developments in regulation and geopolitics of the energy market in its new Energy Policy Developments Q1 2025 report.
The landscape
The latest policy developments include the dismantling of permitting and regulation frameworks and energy transition subsidies, as well as the introduction of sanctions and tariffs. The responses from US allies and foes vary. Antagonised allies, in Canada and the EU, have begun to rethink projects, suppliers, and alliances. Foes have sought to overcome sanctions and trade barriers. Meanwhile, individual countries scramble to balance the economic rents of fossil fuels, energy security, and renewable energy goals.
Before Trump’s inauguration, legal challenges emerged over offshore drilling policies. Shortly after taking office, Trump lifted key restrictions, opening protected areas in Alaska and offshore regions for drilling. The administration also created the Energy Dominance Council to streamline project approvals. However, new tariffs are expected to impact the upstream and midstream sectors while the US’ exit from the Paris Agreement and strained trade relations add uncertainty. Canada’s stance on energy projects may shift in response, affecting cross-border energy cooperation.
Mexico expanded Petróleos Mexicanos’ control over the energy sector through constitutional reform and tax benefits. Brazil and Colombia took opposing approaches – Brazil boosted both fossil fuel and renewable investments while Colombia restricted Ecopetrol’s domestic and US activities, and faced gas shortages. Argentina debuted an incentives framework for investments in its energy sector while Venezuela suffered another setback as Trump revoked Chevron’s oil license.
Europe’s reconfiguration of its gas supply is still underway, particularly with the stoppage of Ukraine-transit gas and strained US relations. Germany pushed for the activation of part of Nord Stream 2 while sanctions on Russian energy forced Eastern Europe to seek alternatives. The EU considered directly investing in liquified natural gas infrastructure abroad. Norway expanded exploration, whereas the UK raised taxes and regulations but remained an attractive investment destination. Russia increased refining efforts as a way to avoid crude-based sanctions.
Oil-rich Middle Eastern countries continued investing in green energy, funded by fossil fuel revenues. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predicted long-term oil demand growth, contradicting the International Energy Agency’s forecasts. OPEC’s renewable energy push seemed more about economic resilience than decarbonisation. African countries such as Nigeria, Angola, and Libya push for oil fiscal regime reforms while security threats in Mozambique present setbacks. US aid cuts may hinder African electrification efforts.
Meanwhile, China set a record for discounted Russian oil imports but banned US-sanctioned tankers in Shandong, raising costs for refiners reliant on Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. The country also implemented strict carbon emission controls, influencing regional energy plans in Japan, Vietnam, and Malaysia. India, after negotiations with Trump, formed a ‘mega partnership’ with the US to boost oil and gas imports while refining its fuel procurement strategies.
In a rapidly shifting energy landscape, the first months of 2025 have been defined by aggressive US policy shifts, global realignments, and the ongoing tension between energy security and transition efforts. The coming months will test the resilience of global energy markets as governments, companies, and institutions navigate an increasingly complex and polarised energy policy environment.
For a detailed analysis of energy developments, major electoral events, and comprehensive data, stay tuned to GlobalData’s series of Energy Policy Developments reports.
